"This crop has been good. They will crush less cane (than last season) but the sucrose content will be high. The weather has been beneficial," said Julio Maria Borges, director at JOB Economia consultancy, in an interview late Tuesday. Borges sees average industrial yields in the region at around 140 kg per tonne of cane, up from about 133 kg last season. Total cane crushing, however, is seen down at 61 million tonnes, compared with 64 million in the 2008/09 season.
Cane needs a plentiful supply of water during its growth phase and dry weather during harvesting, so it can pack sugars more densely inside its fibrous stalk. "It's the first time since the 1970s that (industrial) yields in the north-east will be higher than those in the center-south," said Plinio Nastari, president at Datagro analysts, which puts the region's 2009/10 yields at 136.9 kg per tonne of cane.
But producing a better quality crop than the center-south has not been difficult, given the constant rains that have blighted production there this year. The center-south accounts for 90 percent of Brazil's national cane crop but quality fell sharply this season due to excess rains which have also slowed harvesting by preventing trucks and harvesters getting into the muddy fields.
According to Datagro, the center-south's average yield should reach this season 130.9 kg/t compared with a range between 142 and 147 kg/t in the last three years. A key factor for this was the El Nino weather phenomenon, which usually causes rains to be above average in the center-south and the weather to be drier than usual in Brazil's north-east this time of the year.
The trend is expected to continue in both regions for the next few months. Cane harvesting in the north-east runs from September through March, and in the center-south from April through December. The analysts also expect a significant transfer of ethanol and sugar stocks from the center-south to the north-east in the first half of 2010 for local consumption as north-eastern mills are prioritising sugar exports.
Borges said that between 1 billion and 1.1 billion liters of ethanol - or 35 to 40 percent of the annual demand in the north-east - to be supplied by the center-south. This compares with 7 percent of demand last season. Sugar transfers are estimated at around 700,000 tonnes, or one third of the annual consumption in the north-east, he said, adding that last year these transfers were minimal.